洲际导弹造价:请高手帮忙翻译一下(难度较大)

来源:百度文库 编辑:杭州交通信息网 时间:2024/04/29 11:22:35
The pure equilibria are plausible in situations where the two countries have some means to coordinate on either equilibrium. For example, a small perturbation of the game that would create even a tiny asymmetry in the payoffs, may be enough for both players to expect mobilization by the player who has the most to gain from it, thus rendering that equilibrium "salient" or " focal." According to Schelling, it is likely that humans are capable of such coordination in many situations, while a purely formal analysis is likely to be unable to capture the principles of salience or focality in the game in question:" One cannot, without empirical evidence, deduce what understandings can be perceived in a non-zero sum game of maneuver any more than one can prove, by purely formal deduction, that a particular joke is bound to be funny" .

Absent any commonly understood coordination principle, the game's mixed equilibrium appears more plausible. Each country is then uncertain about the other's move, assigning some probability P to the event that the other country will mobilize. The Nash equilibrium probability of mobilization is P=(a-b)/(a-b+c), rendering each country indifferent whether to mobilize. It follows that, for plausible parameter values, the probability of war is decreasing in the loser's payoff c; the key to minimizing the risk of war is not only to contain the winner's gain but equally importantly to improve the loser's payoff.

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纯净的平衡是振振有词的在二个国家有一些手段协调在或者平衡的情况。 例如, 会创造甚而微小的非对称在结局比赛的小扰动, 愿是足够使两个球员期待动员由有多数获取从它的球员, 因而rendering 平衡"明显" 或"焦点。"根据Schelling, 它是可能的, 人是有能力在这样的协调上在许多情况, 当纯净地正式分析可能无法夺取突起或focality 的原则在比赛在考虑中:"你不能, 没有经验主义的证据, 推论什么理解比你可能证明可能被察觉在回旋非零总和赛, 由纯净地正式扣除, 一个特殊笑话一定滑稽"。

缺席任何共同地了解协调原则, 游戏的被混合的平衡看上去更加振振有词。 各个国家是然后不定的关于其他移动, 分配某一可能性P 到另一国家将动员的事件。 动员的Nash 平衡可能性是P=(a b)(a-b+c), 使各个国家冷漠是否动员。 因而断定, 为振振有词的参数值, 战争的可能性是越来越少的在失败者的结局c; 使战争减到最小风险的钥匙不仅将包含优胜者的获取但相等地重要地改进失败者的结局。

纯净的平衡是振振有词的在二个国家有一些手段协调在或者平衡的情况。 例如, 会创造甚而微小的非对称在结局比赛的小扰动, 愿是足够使两个球员期待动员由有多数获取从它的球员, 因而rendering 平衡"明显" 或"焦点。"根据Schelling, 它是可能的, 人是有能力在这样的协调上在许多情况, 当纯净地正式分析可能无法夺取突起或focality 的原则在比赛在考虑中:"你不能, 没有经验主义的证据, 推论什么理解比你可能证明可能被察觉在回旋非零总和赛, 由纯净地正式扣除, 一个特殊笑话一定滑稽"。

缺席任何共同地了解协调原则, 游戏的被混合的平衡看上去更加振振有词。 各个国家是然后不定的关于其他移动, 分配某一可能性P 到另一国家将动员的事件。 动员的Nash 平衡可能性是P=(a b)(a-b+c), 使各个国家冷漠是否动员。 因而断定, 为振振有词的参数值, 战争的可能性是越来越少的在失败者的结局c; 使战争减到最小风险的钥匙不仅将包含优胜者的获取但相等地重要地改进失败者的结局。